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Experts believe that major shake-ups to the Bitcoin market — like the 2020 Bitcoin halving — may lead to a bull market during 2021. Some more ambitious analysts predict the market may see a bull run to prices as high as $100,000 per bitcoin.
These three expectations and predictions sum up the current thinking from analysts on how likely we are to see this bull run next year:
1. Growing Investor Confidence May Drive Bull Market
A combination of metrics shows that investor confidence in Bitcoin is recovering after a shaky period early in the year. While there is still some short-term weakness in the BTC market, much of that weakness is due, in part, to external factors — like investor fear during the first few months of the coronavirus pandemic — that the market seems to be recovering from.
The amount of bitcoins being held on to by investors has hit record highs for the year. On June 29, Bitcoin’s one-year HODL wave hit an all-time high of 63%. Previous Bitcoin bull markets have also been preceded by similarly high HODL levels, according to analysis from LookIntoBitcoin creator Philip Swift.
At the same time, institutional investors began making big moves in the market following the halving. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust swallowed up more than 17% of new bitcoin between 2019 and May 2020, according to research from Cointelegraph. The surge in attention from institutional investors could majorly impact bitcoin prices.
2. Slipping Yuan May Encourage Boost From Chinese Investors
The yuan continues to fall against the dollar. Despite the recent loosening of currency restrictions by the Chinese government that has made the yuan more open to foreign businesses, analysts believe the currency will remain weakagainst the dollar for the foreseeable future.
Now, major analysts — including Goldman Sachs — believe the yuan may fall to its lowest prices since 2008 during the second half of 2020. Historically, slipping renminbi prices have been good news for cryptocurrency markets. When China’s central bank devalued the yuan by 3.5% in 2015, for example, Bitcoin quickly rallied by a significant 34%. Chinese investors and yuan currency holders, wanting to get the most from their money, are more likely to convert their assets when it seems like yuan prices will continue to dip.
Some analysts are already predicting that if the yuan’s value falls for long enough, it could be a major factor in a 2021 bull market.
3. Recession May Drive Investors to Bitcoin
Lastly, the world economy is staring down what may be the biggest economic recession in decades. After 128 months of economic expansion, the U.S. is finally entering a period of market contraction. As businesses start to feel the impact of this contraction, investors typically move their assets to safe-haven investments.
Bitcoin isn’t as safe a haven as others — in times of crisis, investors are more likely to pick assets like gold or silver. Still, Bitcoin is built to act as an alternative to the mainstream economy by default. If people start to lose faith in the economy or the Fed’s ability to manage this new recession, we could see major investments in Bitcoin.
Not every model backs up this possibility, however. CryptoWhale’s new bitcoin model, which uses quantum analysis to forecast prices, predicts bearish conditions through 2021. If this is the case, we may still see a bull market — just not until 2022.
Should We Expect to See a Bull Run in 2021?
Not every analyst is so convinced we’ll see a bull market in 2021. However, there are multiple reasons to believe 2021 will be an excellent year for Bitcoin. Partly restored investor confidence, growing interest in Bitcoin from institutional investors and a slipping yuan are all likely to drive increased Bitcoin prices through the end of this year and the next.
While some of the most optimistic predictions may not come to pass, a bull market in 2021 seems like a real possibility.
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